tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-218052392011-09-19T20:18:58.447+07:00A blunt and uncensored view of issues facing Indonesia and the world today... from the eye of a no-nonsense economist.Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.comBlogger141100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-43070344327243651642011-05-01T23:36:00.005+07:002011-05-01T23:50:51.412+07:00

This is a pic taken during my biking trip last month to my parents’ hometown of Maninjau, West Sumatera. The lake, situated in an elevated mountainous terrain, is located 70km (a 3-hour drive) to the northwest of the capital city, Padang. The view is breathtaking and this is absolutely a heavenly place for biking. The air is very clean and cool also. Temperatures could drop down to 17'c at night,

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-55704360253726105372011-03-22T21:45:00.004+07:002011-03-23T20:57:50.200+07:00

This is a screenshot of a TV talkshow I did this week discussing oil prices. Basically my message was that there are three main channels through which rising oil prices affect the Indonesian economy: the balance of payments, the fiscal balance and inflation. The risk on the first two are somewhat lower now compared to 2008. But what should be watched is the latter: inflation. If the discrepancy

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-50054086835852848112010-12-19T17:58:00.010+07:002010-12-21T10:41:27.276+07:00

The solution to Jakarta’s traffic woes is well-known; the question is: will it be implemented?Not long ago, the National Geographic Channel made a film about Jakarta in its Megacities episode. It highlighted the growing challenges facing the city (namely traffic, floods & population growth) and what the authorities are actually doing about them.The film showed some of the successes in combating

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-33469988532312708602010-06-29T22:30:00.008+07:002010-07-02T22:29:21.611+07:00

Last weekend I went on a trip to Vietnam and tried out shooting this AK-47 in the jungle near Ho Chi Minh City. This was a very exciting experience; mainly because I was aware that the AK is a legendary weapon. This machine gun has transformed the history of many countries; put up & toppled many dictators and has been used in countless revolutions and atrocities throughout the world.So my hands

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-70496907369578118072009-10-21T01:14:00.008+07:002009-10-24T22:53:15.523+07:00

In Indonesia, rain-doctors have managed to stand the test of time--partly due to a serious mispricing in their pay-system.Recently an important and expensive outdoor event I attended was ruined by the rain. The band, food and drinks already paid for, all went to waste as water poured down relentlessly.It was clearly the organizer's fault. After all, rain had come down every afternoon in the three

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-36201046739708951442008-10-03T23:15:00.006+07:002008-10-05T20:01:38.591+07:00

My wife and I was recently offered a number of unit-linked insurance products; i.e. products that combine savings with insurance. They go like this: If I die before a certain age, my family will get a lump-sum of money; but if I survive past that age, I'll be able to recollect my premiums which have grown in size (as if I had been saving for all that time). The key question that popped into my

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-69375550293327331862008-07-04T20:16:00.001+07:002008-07-04T20:18:00.237+07:00

Those who think fuel subsidies should be maintained at all costs should prepare to return to the stone-age. With the parliamentary inquiry on fuel prices forthcoming, many are still debating whether the government really should have raised fuel prices back in May. A member of parliament was recently quoted as saying: “Di Rusia harga BBM setara dengan Rp9.000-an tetapi pendapatan per kapita

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-63091607982473383762008-06-22T19:12:00.002+07:002008-06-22T19:27:06.176+07:00

This is a cap from my interview last week at Metro TV. Talked about the government's latest global bond issuance.In a nutshell: It wasn't the best time to issue a US$ bond, but at least it served to diversify the government's financing sources, as well as help relieve oversupply concerns in the domestic bond market. If the government wants bond yields to come down, it must first deal with

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-62289281514948568742008-05-04T17:42:00.007+07:002008-05-10T02:33:40.243+07:00

I talked to a friend who's an official at a supranational body the other day. We talked about interest rates and fuel price hikes. The official, a good friend of mine, praised BI for raising rates dramatically in 2005. He said the rate hike managed to contain inflation expectations and mitigate the second round effects of the fuel price increase back then.Another person I met more recently, also

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-75754060872019177912007-12-19T19:11:00.000+07:002007-12-20T21:22:12.499+07:00

Can a lack of "creative destruction" explain why Indonesia's manufacturing sector is lagging behind? I was invited to present my views at a discussion session with BI's research team yesterday, along with several other economists. There was one interesting point I found out during the discussion: Based on BI's survey, Indonesia's capacity utilization rate still stands at a modest 70%. Then

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-88732790845532621152007-11-23T17:33:00.000+07:002008-12-10T20:45:53.317+07:00

This is a snapshot from my live TV interview for BBC Asia Business Report last week. Talked about Indo economic growth, exchange rate and oil prices. This was my first time and admittedly it was quite an experience. You don't know what questions the interviewer would throw at you so gotta think quickly--using non-technical language (that's the hardest part).

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-4038620265029751852007-11-19T10:10:00.000+07:002008-12-10T20:45:53.764+07:00

Someone recently e-mailed me with questions regarding the impact of oil prices to the budget deficit. How much will it bloat if oil prices stay at current levels? I think there's a misperception here... I believe there will be no bloating deficit. I answered his e-mail as below: How worse could budget deficit be (deficit to GDP ratio) if we assume oil price will stay at current level for a

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-62254699854196477122007-10-05T23:53:00.000+07:002007-10-13T03:45:33.597+07:00

If u notice, there're plenty of everyday mysteries out there... little things we can't make sense of but nobody does anything about. But at the end of the day we often realize, they're all about money.One example is buying petrol at your local petrol station. I had been wondering for some time why we couldn't use credit or debit cards in local petrol stations... like how they do it in the

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21805239.post-21142164436846137802007-07-16T22:40:00.000+07:002007-07-16T22:47:58.304+07:00

What's in a name? Sometimes everythingIndonesia’s top business school should review the way it does business.A few days ago I had a chat with an office mate. Apparently he went to the same school as I did: The Econ Dept. of the University of Indonesia (FEUI). Only he graduated more recently; i.e. in 2006, six years after I graduated.Reminiscent of the good old days, I asked him what it was like

Helmi Armanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16324295676386921600noreply@blogger.com1